An Update- Oh Noes!
Rule of Blogging 742-When certain militant Catholics tell you to update your blog, you know you've been slacking.
I apologise, and as an excuse I can only offer the siren call of my XBox (which now is home to a copy of the superlative "Brothers in Arms") and those paper things that we have to do on occasion in University.
However, now that we're on break and my brother has colonised my XBox thanks to the addictive qualities of "Fable," I can no longer offer excuses.
My blogging is particularly put to shame when one considers the momentous shift that has occurred in the last several weeks. The Lebanon is afire with the desire for liberty and independence. People all over the planet are seeking free elections, and officials on the "Arab Street" are giving in. The middle east of to-day is barely recognisable. Syria is disengaging from the Lebanon. Iraq is picking its own government. Egypt is holding multi-candidate elections. Palestinians grow weary of terrorism and the attacks against Israel. Things which were always thought outside the realm of plausibility have been occurring like an avalanche in the last several months. Some have even labeled this as the "Arab spring," akin to the reforms which swept across the Warsaw Pact nations during the 1960s.
Of course, having my nature, I intend to throw some water on this happy vision. Democratic reforms do not mean democracy, tolerance, or openness. Thought they certainly lead that way, one does not guarantee the other. The ME is still fraught with ignorance, religious fanaticism, and bad governance. A few democratic reforms will not guarantee anything. There's still Iran, a potent and possibly nuclear player. Iran and Hezbollah could cause a great deal of trouble in future.
What do I see? Personally, I see the middle east becoming more or less like South America is now. The nations, by and large, are democratic in some way, but still are home to kleptocracies and favouritism (as all governments are). Where Marxist guerilla movements exist in South America, supported by the likes of "Il Duce Dos" Hugo Chavez, we'll see similar Islamist movements in the ME, supported by Iran and its ilk. Such movements need not be popular, but rather profitable. The FARC in Colombia survives not by its ideology, but rather its profitable connexiones with drug lords and its kidnapping business. The Insurgents in Iraq are already focusing on capturing loud journalists and others, and depending on their home countries to pay multi-million dollar ransoms (like Mmsle Sgrena, a pox be upon her). With this money, they hire the "minutemen" to carry out attacks. The Insurgency is placing bounties on the heads of those they dislike. It seems that the face of the insurgent is not the committed Holy Warrior, but rather common criminals and thugs who are well paid for their efforts. Though the Insurgency and its ilk seem to have lost their major power, they will continue to trouble the authorities in that part of the world.
Of course, this begs the question as to whether post-modern western culture (henceforth ironically titled "the End of History") is superior to Islamist Culture, and whether these nations are doing themselves a favour by tying into it. This, of course, will be meat for a later post.
For now, I'll sign off with the promise of a Range Report from to-day's bout of shooting. It'll be a blast!
I apologise, and as an excuse I can only offer the siren call of my XBox (which now is home to a copy of the superlative "Brothers in Arms") and those paper things that we have to do on occasion in University.
However, now that we're on break and my brother has colonised my XBox thanks to the addictive qualities of "Fable," I can no longer offer excuses.
My blogging is particularly put to shame when one considers the momentous shift that has occurred in the last several weeks. The Lebanon is afire with the desire for liberty and independence. People all over the planet are seeking free elections, and officials on the "Arab Street" are giving in. The middle east of to-day is barely recognisable. Syria is disengaging from the Lebanon. Iraq is picking its own government. Egypt is holding multi-candidate elections. Palestinians grow weary of terrorism and the attacks against Israel. Things which were always thought outside the realm of plausibility have been occurring like an avalanche in the last several months. Some have even labeled this as the "Arab spring," akin to the reforms which swept across the Warsaw Pact nations during the 1960s.
Of course, having my nature, I intend to throw some water on this happy vision. Democratic reforms do not mean democracy, tolerance, or openness. Thought they certainly lead that way, one does not guarantee the other. The ME is still fraught with ignorance, religious fanaticism, and bad governance. A few democratic reforms will not guarantee anything. There's still Iran, a potent and possibly nuclear player. Iran and Hezbollah could cause a great deal of trouble in future.
What do I see? Personally, I see the middle east becoming more or less like South America is now. The nations, by and large, are democratic in some way, but still are home to kleptocracies and favouritism (as all governments are). Where Marxist guerilla movements exist in South America, supported by the likes of "Il Duce Dos" Hugo Chavez, we'll see similar Islamist movements in the ME, supported by Iran and its ilk. Such movements need not be popular, but rather profitable. The FARC in Colombia survives not by its ideology, but rather its profitable connexiones with drug lords and its kidnapping business. The Insurgents in Iraq are already focusing on capturing loud journalists and others, and depending on their home countries to pay multi-million dollar ransoms (like Mmsle Sgrena, a pox be upon her). With this money, they hire the "minutemen" to carry out attacks. The Insurgency is placing bounties on the heads of those they dislike. It seems that the face of the insurgent is not the committed Holy Warrior, but rather common criminals and thugs who are well paid for their efforts. Though the Insurgency and its ilk seem to have lost their major power, they will continue to trouble the authorities in that part of the world.
Of course, this begs the question as to whether post-modern western culture (henceforth ironically titled "the End of History") is superior to Islamist Culture, and whether these nations are doing themselves a favour by tying into it. This, of course, will be meat for a later post.
For now, I'll sign off with the promise of a Range Report from to-day's bout of shooting. It'll be a blast!
posted by The Admiral at 10:17 PM
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