Thursday, February 10, 2005

Revision and Projection

I was advised that I neglected to note the differences between a conventional reactor layout and the new Chinese "Pebble Bed" design. The chief difference is that the radioactive material in a conventional reactor is stored in a rod design, allowing critical mass and easy removal of said rods from the reactor when the fuel becomes spent. The new Chinese design encases radioactive fuel in "pebbles" of graphite, which contain most of the radioactive emissions from the fuel. The pellet is thin enough to allow both neutrons and heat to escape. The neutrons continue the fission reaction by splitting Uranium-235 in other fuel pellets. The heat transferred to the coolant, which is usually Helium, and then creates steam which is used to power a turbine, which in turn powers the generator. If there is a coolant problem, or the reaction gets out of control, the heat expands the graphite, lessening the density of fissile material and thus it lacks critical mass, meaning the reaction cannot continue. This means the reactor is self-moderating. US water-cooled reactors are also self-moderating, but a coolant loss is still catastrophic, whereas it is not for the Chinese system. In addition, the graphite surrounding each fuel bit is sufficient to keep out most radiation, meaning that fuel handling is safer than its US counterpart.
Continuing in the nuclear vein, it seems Pyongyang has finally admitted what everyone already knows and officially stated that they have a nuclear arsenal. They have apparently privately admitted before that they had the Bomb, but it seems it's official now. Furthermore, they've withdrawn from the six-party talks aimed at getting them to drop their nuclear programme.
Of course, the US's solution is more "diplomatic isolation" from the "rest of the world". Of course, North Korea is already the most isolated country on the face of the earth, so one wonders exactly what this is supposed to accomplish. The short answer is "absolutely nothing", and as a result now three out of three of the world's potential hot-spots have nuclear overtones (Straits of Taiwan, Kashmir in India, and now the Koreas).
All of this might have been stopped almost ten years ago. Instead, Jimmah Carter rushed over to Pyongyang, and he and Madeline Albright decided that the North Koreans were a force to be trusted. Therefore, they were left to their own devices, and we used the very effective "honours system" to ensure that Kim Jong Il didn't start up fissile material enrichment again, which he did anyway, while the west twiddled its thumbs.
A nuclear North Korea was a staple of the "nightmare scenarios" of geostrategic studies in the mid-90s. Now it's a reality. A nuclear-armed Iran is on the way as well, it seems. Soon, we'll have a fourth nuclear tension point- Iran-Israel or Iran-Iraq, maybe both.
The odd thing is that these nations are not blamed for their conduct. Instead, they are treated like spoiled children who have taken hold of daddy's shotgun- they are offered toys, candy, and anything else they want to let it go. Whenever they want more, they start rattling the shotgun again.
I've said many times that we're going to pay for our lack of commitment to a secure world in the mid to late 90s. It seems this is the case. Perhaps we should all take a cue from the Emperor in Return of the Jedi, who warns us those with a lack of vision will pay a price.
Excuse me while I dig my fallout shelter and replace the batteries in my radiation detector...
More on this later

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