...for it is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives
Now, I will get down to business. Lately I've been examining some trends and I'm forming some pictures of life in the future. Sadly, I am no Criswell, and I cannot venture an 87% accuracy rating in my predictions. However, this is purely for fun and to provoke comment. So use the damned comment box already!
The internet is obviously the number one agent of change in modern society. As a result of its connective power, people no longer require proximity to conduct business. This serves an enabler to man's desire to own land. Man is naturally driven to a degree of independence- suburbs were so successful because they allowed people to live in their own houses, but also were in proximity to cities, which allowed easy access to jobs.
Because business can easily be conducted over networks, costly physical properties will become less and less important. Business will more likely consist of free-agent individuals joining up with others to accomplish an enterprise. This enterprise will work on attaining a particular goal. As better opportunities emerge, members will leave and others join, making an ad-hoc group. The true core of the business will be the entrepreneur. Though shipping, warehousing, and other types of physical business will still be dominated by large corporations, smaller groups with a specific focus will be able to out-perform larger groupings that have large overhead costs due to their extensive size. These ad-hoc businesses have little or no physical property, and as a result have fewer costs.
This contributes to decentralisation of housing. Because there's no "office" to work in, people can live where they please, so long as they have an internet connection. They will remain connected to their comrades, but they will not be saddled with commutes and other associated inconveniences.
Another contributing factor to decentralisation is security concerns. Mega-cities make very tempting targets for those who wish to induce terror, be they state or non-state actors. A large concentration of people living in one area means that less effort is required to wipe them out. A single 20-kiloton nuclear weapon detonated in downtown Manhattan may kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. The same weapon detonated in, say, rural Nevada may kill dozens at the most. Thus, a large mass of people is always a tempting target.
People don't like to be targets. Continued security threats, and realities of twenty-first century ideological warfare (asymmetric attacks on urban centers with "WMDs"), along with miserable social conditions in cities and high prices, will lead to an exodus from urban centers. This will make the gruesome task of terror more difficult. People will feel more secure living spread out.
This is especially true in the present war against Islamist ideology. There is really no way to stop the Islamists, and there will be more attacks against urban centers, which in Islamist ideology signify the sinks of corruption of the western system.
The WoT may very well be a multi-generational war, and the upshot of any multi-generational war is a change in life-style. The benefits of decentralised living now far out-weigh the costs, and the result is increased security and resistance to terror, along with an improvement in quality of life.
Stay tuned for more commentary on future cities, transportation, culture, and war-fare.
The internet is obviously the number one agent of change in modern society. As a result of its connective power, people no longer require proximity to conduct business. This serves an enabler to man's desire to own land. Man is naturally driven to a degree of independence- suburbs were so successful because they allowed people to live in their own houses, but also were in proximity to cities, which allowed easy access to jobs.
Because business can easily be conducted over networks, costly physical properties will become less and less important. Business will more likely consist of free-agent individuals joining up with others to accomplish an enterprise. This enterprise will work on attaining a particular goal. As better opportunities emerge, members will leave and others join, making an ad-hoc group. The true core of the business will be the entrepreneur. Though shipping, warehousing, and other types of physical business will still be dominated by large corporations, smaller groups with a specific focus will be able to out-perform larger groupings that have large overhead costs due to their extensive size. These ad-hoc businesses have little or no physical property, and as a result have fewer costs.
This contributes to decentralisation of housing. Because there's no "office" to work in, people can live where they please, so long as they have an internet connection. They will remain connected to their comrades, but they will not be saddled with commutes and other associated inconveniences.
Another contributing factor to decentralisation is security concerns. Mega-cities make very tempting targets for those who wish to induce terror, be they state or non-state actors. A large concentration of people living in one area means that less effort is required to wipe them out. A single 20-kiloton nuclear weapon detonated in downtown Manhattan may kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. The same weapon detonated in, say, rural Nevada may kill dozens at the most. Thus, a large mass of people is always a tempting target.
People don't like to be targets. Continued security threats, and realities of twenty-first century ideological warfare (asymmetric attacks on urban centers with "WMDs"), along with miserable social conditions in cities and high prices, will lead to an exodus from urban centers. This will make the gruesome task of terror more difficult. People will feel more secure living spread out.
This is especially true in the present war against Islamist ideology. There is really no way to stop the Islamists, and there will be more attacks against urban centers, which in Islamist ideology signify the sinks of corruption of the western system.
The WoT may very well be a multi-generational war, and the upshot of any multi-generational war is a change in life-style. The benefits of decentralised living now far out-weigh the costs, and the result is increased security and resistance to terror, along with an improvement in quality of life.
Stay tuned for more commentary on future cities, transportation, culture, and war-fare.
posted by The Admiral at 12:41 PM
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